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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-03-17T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-03-17T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29628/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed towards the southwest in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a filament eruption spanning S45E05 to S15W40 seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, and 304 imagery starting around 2024-03-17T02:30Z. Dimming is visible from the eruption site shortly after the filament lifts-off, starting around 02:37Z, seen in SDO AIA 193 and field line movement can be seen near the S/SW limb at this time in SDO AIA 171. Post-eruptive loops begin to form around 04:30Z as seen in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery. This event partially overlaps CME: 2024-03-17T03:36Z, which also likely occurs from the same filament eruption. Arrival signature is likely of a combined arrival of these two CMEs. It is characterized by an increase in magnetic field to 14nT in what is likely the CME sheath, followed after 2024-03-21T10:49Z by smooth rotation of magnetic field components in what is likely the flux rope.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-03-21T01:50Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-20T20:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:

Met Office ENLIL settings.
ENLIL version: 2.7
Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform)
Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1
WSA version: 4.5
GONG: mrzqs
Note that this arrival time forecast is based on the simulation but is then adjusted by a human-in-the-loop.

Please specify following CME input parameters.
Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 2024-03-17T08:39Z
Radial velocity (km/s): 685
Longitude (deg): 07E
Latitude (deg): 34S
Half-angular width (deg): 23

Notes: 
Space weather advisor:

Lead Time: 78.93 hour(s)
Difference: 5.83 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2024-03-17T18:54Z

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